More patients, overstretched doctors – is the NHS facing a winter crisis?
At Bradford Royal Infirmary’s A&E department, their usual 350 to 370 patients make a busy day. Several times this month, however, more than 400 patients have turned up in 24 hours, placing even greater strain on the hospital’s staff, beds and ability to cope.
Last Saturday, they saw 414.
That, staff say, is when busy becomes super-busy. But the way the numbers are creeping up, with more than 400 patients becoming a more frequent occurrence, super-busy could easily become their new norm, especially with winter just around the corner.
This rising demand is not unique to Bradford, says Helen Barker, the hospital’s chief operating officer. “Everybody’s finding it really difficult to deliver on the 95% target [the NHS-wide duty to treat 95% of A&E patients within four hours of their arrival].
“We are all seeing continued high attendances and a significantly high level of admissions too.” Those extra 50 or so patients make it very hard to ensure there are enough beds available for all who need them.
Usually the difficulties between November and March are followed by an easier spring and summer. But not any more. “We’ve not seen any reduction in patients arriving at A&E all year, really, so winter just feels like a 12-month phenomenon. We’ve not seen any let-up this year at all,” Barker adds. The numbers arriving at the hospital went up last winter from over 300 to more like 350 a day, and stayed up.
Why is this happening? She refers to “the acuity of patients” – medico-speak for how ill people are. Put simply, more patients are more unwell than before. “There’s an ever-growing demand from elderly patients. But we also have a lot of patients aged 35 to 60 who have breathing conditions, chest pains, heart problems, illnesses linked to their diet, such as obesity, which is causing diabetes, which leads to vascular disease, and includes those whose illness has been triggered by drinking too much, such as liver disease or malnutrition,” she adds.