Abstract

Canada’s primary healthcare system is in crisis today, with over 4.6 million Canadians not having access to a consistent primary care provider. In this paper, we employed a forecasting model to examine family physician (FP) supply and demand, and the associated costs, and discuss potential solutions. Based on the forecasting model, in the most likely case scenario, the FP shortage will reach a peak of 15,354 FPs in 2037, and this deficit will persist even 28 years later in 2052. Potential solutions include multiple levels of care providers, team-based care, providing additional training opportunities and pathways, re-defining the FP role and compensation model, improving system efficiencies and increasing accountability.