Now, a new study reported online by Circulation suggests that many younger individuals defined as low risk by conventional risk stratification methods may not remain at low risk throughout their lives.1
The study included 2988 individuals under 50 years of age from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study and 1076 from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Short-term (10-year) risk was assessed according to the Framingham Risk Score, but added to this risk assessment model were other factors indicative of a longer lifetime risk.2 Combination of the two risk assessment models allowed risk stratification in three groups: low 10-year/low lifetime risk; low 10-year/high lifetime risk; and high 10-year risk or diagnosed diabetes mellitus. Baseline levels and change in levels of subclinical atherosclerosis (as represented by coronary artery calcium or carotid intima-media thickness) were then compared across the three risk groups. And results showed that those in the low 10-year/high lifetime risk group had a greater subclinical disease burden and greater incidence of atherosclerotic progression than those in the low 10-year/low lifetime risk group, even at younger ages.
"Thus, long-term risk estimates in younger patients may provide new information regarding risk prediction that is not usually available using only a 10-year risk model," said the study's first author Dr Jarrett Berry from UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas.
The main weakness of a conventional risk estimation model such as the Framingham Risk Score is the dominance of age, says cardiologist Professor Wolfgang König from the University of Ulm Medical Centre in Germany speaking on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. "It means that 90 per cent of people of a relatively younger age are defined as low risk. But experience tells us that a low short-term risk in younger subjects may not reflect their true risk. We see many young patients with an apparently low short-term risk who actually have advanced heart disease. That's why young patients are still a challenge in cardiology."
Professor König adds that the study raises an attractive concept in risk stratification which may well provide a mechanistic explanation for the discrepancy between "low risk" but advanced disease in young people. In public health terms, such an approach may well allow more precise differentiation between various risk groups. "The earlier we can identify risk, the higher the chance of preventing serious disease," he says.
The European Society of Cardiology (ESC):
The ESC represents nearly 53,000 cardiology professionals across Europe and the Mediterranean. Its mission is to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease in Europe.
The ESC achieves this through a variety of scientific and educational activities including the coordination of: clinical practice guidelines, education courses and initiatives, pan-European surveys on specific disease areas and the ESC Annual Congress, the largest medical meeting in Europe. The ESC also works closely with the European Commission and WHO to improve health policy in the EU.
The ESC comprises 3 Councils, 5 Associations, 19 Working Groups, 50 National Cardiac Societies and an ESC Fellowship Community (Fellow, FESC; Nurse Fellow, NFESC). For more information on ESC Initiatives, Congresses and Constituent Bodies see www.escardio.org.
European Society of Cardiology, The European Heart House 2035 Route des Colles, B.P. 179 - Les Templiers, Sophia Antipolis F-06903 France
1Berry JD, Liu K, Folsom AR, et al. Multi-Ethnic Study of AtherosclerosisDisease. Prevalence and progression of subclinical atherosclerosis in younger adults with low short-term but high lifetime estimated risk for cardiovascular disease. The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Circulation 2009; e-pub ahead of print, DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.108.800235
2Lifetime risk was estimated according to five mutually exclusive risk factors - blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, smoking and predicted risk.
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